December arrived seemingly unannounced. Is it just me or did another year slip by at record speed? I’ve been heavily involved in organizing my business, so I’ve been reaching out to many of my website users to determine if you’d still like to be on the mailing list. I’m hoping to reach out to buyers and sellers I’ve allowed to slip through the cracks, or those who weren’t ready a few years back, maybe now you’re ready? I’m also starting a direct mail newsletter, it will automatically go out to all of my past and current clients, but if you’d have an interest in receiving that, simply reply to this email and send me your mailing address. Clients…watch your mailbox and let me know if you do not receive the newsletter in January.
Okay, back to the St George real estate market report! This report will look at the December, greater St George market conditions (this will actually review November data since we are not through December yet). I’ll be reporting on the Greater St George area (including Ivins, Santa Clara, St George, and Washington). Sunriver is included within St George, but I may review some numbers specific to Sunriver since many of you have an interest in that community. If you’d like to see other information—just ask (reply, call, or text) Paula Smith 435-773-3751
This shows a lot of information. First, it’s clear that the absorption rate gap is widening, meaning, homes are sitting on the market a little longer before they sell. Having said that, these rates are quite low overall. The significance of the widening gap is only to illustrate the possibilities, or probability, of the market shift as I’ve suggested in previous posts. Sales are not significantly reducing, but what is becoming more available is the number of homes listed. Be sure to take note of the 5% increase in the median sale price, over last year and 10% year to date.
My opinion is, the sale prices will likely stabilize, and we will not likely see as much of a price increase going into next year. As I’ve suggested in a previous post, sellers will have more competition, so motivated sellers may be more inclined to reduce their price in an effort to get their home sold faster. This will have a residual effect, where other comparable home sellers may be forced to follow suit. I think we are in the VERY early stages of what will be a trickle effect (not a flood). Here is an interesting article that was written regarding neighboring metro areas that compare prices and show the analysis on a national level. This article echoes similar comments as I've made regarding our St George market conditions. Housing Market Trends.
Here is my favorite “go to” statistics illustration.
In this image, I pulled 3 years worth of data. Check out the peak in May 2018—marked by the green “star”. Our active listings hit a low and the sold hit a high; then both indicators trail off in opposite directions. This isn’t anything of extreme concern, all markets will display these trends. It’s possible, in the future we may look back at this as an indicator, but for now, it’s interesting to note. One important piece of information to take away from this data is that the black line (sold homes) is relatively flat. This is good. This shows that while we do have some highs and lows, overall, sales are constant and steady. The red line (active listings) is more extreme, we just don’t see that sort of movement for sales. This demonstrates the stability, and this is the reason that I am not concerned about any major “crash” anytime soon. Of course, this is only my opinion—my crystal ball is still in the shop.
SunRiver St George Homes For Sale and What Sold?
One quick look at Sunriver. Keep in mind that I’ll be doing a full year analysis of the market conditions and St George real estate market forecast in January. I pulled a similar graph, as the graph above, but specific to Sun River—showing that past 3 years of data.
See that black line, it’s a lot more sporadic. This is nothing of concern, we are isolating our search at a subdivision of approximately 2200 homes (as opposed to the Greater St George area above). Sun River is more of a time trending, somewhat seasonal selling community (though homes sell ALL YEAR). I’ve placed some shapes with colors to show you similarities with the time of year. January is historically a slower month and sales pick up into summer. Inventory remains low in Sun River, but there is always demand. SunRiver should finish out at just over 2300 homes and they’ll likely be built out by mid-2019. They are focusing on the Villa community, which is an age restricted and has shorter term rentals available. If you’re looking to buy or sell, please contact Paula Smith directly.
As a side note, I am an independent agent, all agents are. I do work for an outside company (outside of Sunriver) because I feel it helps me to deliver the best value to the client. I work for the buyer, and my goal is to find the best home for the best price, for that buyer (where ever it may be). I offer services to the buyer (such as my website) and since I am all over Southern Utah and this allows me to know more about the market as a whole. I do sell new construction in all communities, I stay with the client through the entire process and if they are out of town, I visit the construction site regularly and send photos and videos to the client, so they can be involved (we also catch any errors along the way). The client always gets a better deal with resale, but sometimes new construction is a must (or desire). It does NOT cost you anything as a buyer and nothing is added to the price of the home.
Here is an article I wrote a while back about new construction and buyer agents:
Watch for the full year report in January. Please let me know if you’d like to see any specific data or information. Are you ready to buy or sell? I’m ready to make it happen.
Paula Smith ~ Associate Broker RealtyPath St George 435-773-3751