September 2022 St George Real Estate Market Report

If you've followed along on my blogs, you'll know where I stand on the market and conditions and my speculation on what will happen. So far, I've been on point. My option tends to go against the grain of many agents in the industry; however, that is nothing new. I am nothing if not opinionated. I refuse to tell people what they WANT to hear, especially if it's self-serving. If my opinion makes you hold off on buying or selling, that is your decision, and I support you. I'd rather sell nothing than have a buyer feel like I only delivered the "pros," ultimately feeling like they made an uninformed decision.

So where are we today in the St George real estate market, and what are the conditions?

"Covid" was an event on multiple levels. Aside from the apparent (health), it becomes a marker in time, much like an epicenter of an earthquake. That moment sent shockwaves and created a ripple effect, spurring a chain of events in housing, stocks, interest, and politics. It was global. The reverberation, though government-induced, is going to change the course. 

It’s August already, the year is progressing, and the St George, Utah, housing market has begun the shift. Our inventory has increased at a very rapid pace. It seems concerning upon an up-close examination. It is disturbing, quite frankly. But sometimes, you must step back and see things from a distance. The photo below is a great example. The top picture shows the housing market for the past TWO years (since July 2020). WOW…PROBLEMS ARE HERE! Inventory is at record levels, and sales have plummeted to their lowest lows.

Now, look at the photo below showing the last THREE years.

Utah Property Taxes Discriminate. You may have been stunned if you've received your Washington County, Utah, annual property tax valuation bill. There are two issues I'm going to discuss in this article. Issue ONE...the ADDED tax showing on the bill they plan to vote on August 18th, 2022--please attend the meeting if you can--this should be voted against. Due to a prior commitment, I cannot make it to the City Council meeting on the 18th. Issue TWO...our broken property valuation system. 

Property taxes are not uniform or fair. Essentially, they discriminate between neighborhoods and the sales activity within them. Utah is a non-disclosure state. Homeowners are not required to report how much they paid for their property. Occasionally, tax-paying homeowners get lucky, and the Assessor values the property for less than the sale price. But now I'm asking, WHY are we a non-disclosure state? WHY aren't property values based on what you paid? Why are our values determined by a city worker based only on the size and similarities of nearby homes?

There is an argument that if Utah becomes a disclosure state, it will encourage higher taxes, but it should be known that the Assessor already has access to our MLS, so our "secret data" isn't secret. I'm not sure who we are hiding it from...if not the Assessor.

Here is a property valuation example that would be applicable here in Washington County. Two different people purchase a home for $600,000. One person declared what they paid, and their valued assessment resulted nearly identical to their purchase price. The other buyer did NOT disclose the purchase price, and their assessed value resulted in $400,000. Two people paid the SAME purchase price, yet one person is paying $2,000 LESS in property tax for their home. Fair? For this example, the sellers originally purchased the homes for $200,000 (as did many neighbors). The sellers cashed out with a hefty profit, all the neighbors now receive increased valuation assessments, and one of the buyers is saving $2,000 (for now). Fair? The following year that owner gets reassessed and is SHOCKED to receive a $2,400 higher tax bill unexpectedly. His property taxes were impounded, and now his payments are going up by $200 a month to offset the taxes. This is substantial for anyone to receive, and many unsuspecting taxpayers will receive this considerable increase in 2022. Fair?

We are now into the second half of 2022, so let's look at the first half of the real estate market conditions. Here is a great infographic showing the past two years, specific to the Greater St George area, residential homes. 

April 2022 St George Real Estate Market Update

St George, Utah, is heating up; the weather is catching up to the hot housing market. The housing market has been scorching for about two years now…but alas, we may be seeing a trend of slightly cooler market temps. Now let me emphasize…SLIGHTLY….

Back in February 2020, I sent out my blog report for the market—and in it, I wrote:

“Honestly, I wonder if this could be the calm before the housing surge. People are taking a life break, spending time with family or alone, and likely reflecting on life. Those who have been considering changing their current situation, moving across town, or cross country, may decide at this moment….(or once we are in the clear) to act now on these pent-up plans. Others may be financially forced into it, job or pay loss may result in forced sales and relocation. With ridiculously low-interest rates, stocks that were seeing all-time highs (I'm sure many people moved their profits to a more stable portfolio at the first sign of this impending trouble)…I don't know—I think we may see a bit of a frenzy when the wave recedes.” 

Now I’m not going to say “I was right,” but, well…. I was right. It was speculation in unchartered territory back then-- that sentiment remains relevant today. My opinions to follow are still only speculation, so take it for what it may be worth. 

St George Market report… what's to come

Well…If I had the answer to "what's to come," I'd probably also have the answers for all human existence. It's a wild ride we are witnessing, and I've discussed the "what's to come" theory with many professionals in all facets of the real estate industry. While I stumble across like-minded articles —it continues to be a cause for pause and reflection, self-doubt, and reconsideration…as my opinion seems to be the minority of views from many in which I've discussed market conditions.  

I'm going to stand firm with my theory, however…with my original instincts, beliefs, and speculation. I genuinely believe we will hit a housing wall. Will it be as severe and extensive as our 2007'ish housing disaster? Well, I'm not sure. I do think it will be extensive and have a level of severity. I believe the difference in the blowback will be more of a soft fall and not "freefalling" as what happened in 2007. Back then, the housing collapsed—Swift, hard, and seemingly overnight. Values plummeted, and the downward spiral was visible to the naked eye. I do not believe we will see the same rapid fate if housing does hit the inevitable wall. 

Will The Real Estate Market Crash Again in St George?

Year-End and New Year Market Report

Let's take a look at the St. George real estate market report, focusing on current events and comparisons with prior years. And a little reflection on history and science. 

At this point, our St George, Utah housing market seems to be right on track. The market was so predictable that I decided to pull one extra year for comparing and found another year….with the same predictability. January's "sold" homes were almost identical for the past three years. The only total transformation was the number of homes available. That number plummeted. 

SOLD!!  THIS HOME IS NOW SOLD!!!

SunBrook St George Home with a VIEW

85 N. Emeraud Drive
St George, UT 84770

Price: $775,000
MLS 

Bedrooms: 3
Beautiful Backyard, High-End Finishes
Bathrooms: 3
Garage: 2
Square Footage: 2,845

If you'll be using your home as a second home, or you'll be leaving for extended lengths of time--here are some tips to consider. I'm writing this most specific to our St George, Utah area; however, many of these tips will work for any area. Keep in mind that these are suggestions and things that I do for my own home. Each home is different, and it's possible that your particular home or appliances could be negatively impacted by doing something from this list. Please be sure that anything you do will work for your home and your appliances or components. 

What's going on with the St George housing market? Well, it's been active, to say the least. My apologies for not staying on top of these statistics; I've been quite busy myself, and while a poor excuse, it's the truth. I do appreciate the opportunity my clients have allowed me over the years. While I do become overwhelmingly busy at times, I am grateful for the opportunity and I realize that without my clients, I would not have any success. Without further ado, let's take a look at my favorite two-year stat image. The graph below illustrates the market conditions for the past two years. Notice the yellow line—that is a straight line for "sold" homes. You'll see we did have a very small dip in January… but that is relatively common coming out of the holiday season.