Year-end St George Real Estate Market Report

Here we are, at the beginning of the new year and ready to speculate on what is on the housing market horizon. We must review the past to know what to expect for the future. This article will focus on Greater St George for 2022 and how the market fared within the year and compared to prior years.

First, my "go-to" infographic was pulled from our MLS. I prefer this graphic for many reasons; I keep the criteria consistent, making it easy to compare.

November 2022 St George housing market report

The housing train has slowed.

You read it here first, folks. I've been telling you this was coming, and here it is. Is this the end? Are we heading for (another) complete housing market crash? 

No…I don't think it will replicate the crash of 2006. I do believe we will witness several similarities. We will push the boundaries of our comfort zone, much like those last few bites of Thanksgiving dinner.

This report will show what was. What is. And what (may) be in the St George and Hurricane housing market. Keep in mind that "what may be" is my opinion—I do not have access to determine the future, and my analysis should be taken as speculation (infused with insight and intuition).

September 2022 has about the same inventory level as we had "pre-covid" September 2019. Last month I wrote that we'd watch this level and see if inventory levels continue to climb. It did.

The genuine concern was the number of SOLD homes. For September 2022, we sold 203 homes; we haven't seen lows like that since February 2016, when we sold 205 (January 2016, we sold 187 https://www.stgeorgeutrealestate.com/blog/st-george-utah-housing-market-report-july-2018/). Ironically around that time, inventory hovered around 1000-1300 listed homes before going lower into 2017, then remaining around the 700-800's available homes. Remember, this is specific to "greater St George residential." I typically do not pull in Hurricane or Zion areas, so comparing past data trends is easier.

Home for Sale in Washington Utah

257 Prickly Pear Drive
Washington, Utah

Price: $425,000
MLS 22-235697

Bed: 5  Bath: 3
NO HOA, RV Parking
Garage: 2
Square Footage: 2,242

September 2022 St George Real Estate Market Report

If you've followed along on my blogs, you'll know where I stand on the market and conditions and my speculation on what will happen. So far, I've been on point. My option tends to go against the grain of many agents in the industry; however, that is nothing new. I am nothing if not opinionated. I refuse to tell people what they WANT to hear, especially if it's self-serving. If my opinion makes you hold off on buying or selling, that is your decision, and I support you. I'd rather sell nothing than have a buyer feel like I only delivered the "pros," ultimately feeling like they made an uninformed decision.

So where are we today in the St George real estate market, and what are the conditions?

"Covid" was an event on multiple levels. Aside from the apparent (health), it becomes a marker in time, much like an epicenter of an earthquake. That moment sent shockwaves and created a ripple effect, spurring a chain of events in housing, stocks, interest, and politics. It was global. The reverberation, though government-induced, is going to change the course. 

It’s August already, the year is progressing, and the St George, Utah, housing market has begun the shift. Our inventory has increased at a very rapid pace. It seems concerning upon an up-close examination. It is disturbing, quite frankly. But sometimes, you must step back and see things from a distance. The photo below is a great example. The top picture shows the housing market for the past TWO years (since July 2020). WOW…PROBLEMS ARE HERE! Inventory is at record levels, and sales have plummeted to their lowest lows.

Now, look at the photo below showing the last THREE years.

Utah Property Taxes Discriminate. You may have been stunned if you've received your Washington County, Utah, annual property tax valuation bill. There are two issues I'm going to discuss in this article. Issue ONE...the ADDED tax showing on the bill they plan to vote on August 18th, 2022--please attend the meeting if you can--this should be voted against. Due to a prior commitment, I cannot make it to the City Council meeting on the 18th. Issue TWO...our broken property valuation system. 

Property taxes are not uniform or fair. Essentially, they discriminate between neighborhoods and the sales activity within them. Utah is a non-disclosure state. Homeowners are not required to report how much they paid for their property. Occasionally, tax-paying homeowners get lucky, and the Assessor values the property for less than the sale price. But now I'm asking, WHY are we a non-disclosure state? WHY aren't property values based on what you paid? Why are our values determined by a city worker based only on the size and similarities of nearby homes?

There is an argument that if Utah becomes a disclosure state, it will encourage higher taxes, but it should be known that the Assessor already has access to our MLS, so our "secret data" isn't secret. I'm not sure who we are hiding it from...if not the Assessor.

Here is a property valuation example that would be applicable here in Washington County. Two different people purchase a home for $600,000. One person declared what they paid, and their valued assessment resulted nearly identical to their purchase price. The other buyer did NOT disclose the purchase price, and their assessed value resulted in $400,000. Two people paid the SAME purchase price, yet one person is paying $2,000 LESS in property tax for their home. Fair? For this example, the sellers originally purchased the homes for $200,000 (as did many neighbors). The sellers cashed out with a hefty profit, all the neighbors now receive increased valuation assessments, and one of the buyers is saving $2,000 (for now). Fair? The following year that owner gets reassessed and is SHOCKED to receive a $2,400 higher tax bill unexpectedly. His property taxes were impounded, and now his payments are going up by $200 a month to offset the taxes. This is substantial for anyone to receive, and many unsuspecting taxpayers will receive this considerable increase in 2022. Fair?

We are now into the second half of 2022, so let's look at the first half of the real estate market conditions. Here is a great infographic showing the past two years, specific to the Greater St George area, residential homes. 

April 2022 St George Real Estate Market Update

St George, Utah, is heating up; the weather is catching up to the hot housing market. The housing market has been scorching for about two years now…but alas, we may be seeing a trend of slightly cooler market temps. Now let me emphasize…SLIGHTLY….

Back in February 2020, I sent out my blog report for the market—and in it, I wrote:

“Honestly, I wonder if this could be the calm before the housing surge. People are taking a life break, spending time with family or alone, and likely reflecting on life. Those who have been considering changing their current situation, moving across town, or cross country, may decide at this moment….(or once we are in the clear) to act now on these pent-up plans. Others may be financially forced into it, job or pay loss may result in forced sales and relocation. With ridiculously low-interest rates, stocks that were seeing all-time highs (I'm sure many people moved their profits to a more stable portfolio at the first sign of this impending trouble)…I don't know—I think we may see a bit of a frenzy when the wave recedes.” 

Now I’m not going to say “I was right,” but, well…. I was right. It was speculation in unchartered territory back then-- that sentiment remains relevant today. My opinions to follow are still only speculation, so take it for what it may be worth. 

St George Market report… what's to come

Well…If I had the answer to "what's to come," I'd probably also have the answers for all human existence. It's a wild ride we are witnessing, and I've discussed the "what's to come" theory with many professionals in all facets of the real estate industry. While I stumble across like-minded articles —it continues to be a cause for pause and reflection, self-doubt, and reconsideration…as my opinion seems to be the minority of views from many in which I've discussed market conditions.  

I'm going to stand firm with my theory, however…with my original instincts, beliefs, and speculation. I genuinely believe we will hit a housing wall. Will it be as severe and extensive as our 2007'ish housing disaster? Well, I'm not sure. I do think it will be extensive and have a level of severity. I believe the difference in the blowback will be more of a soft fall and not "freefalling" as what happened in 2007. Back then, the housing collapsed—Swift, hard, and seemingly overnight. Values plummeted, and the downward spiral was visible to the naked eye. I do not believe we will see the same rapid fate if housing does hit the inevitable wall. 

Will The Real Estate Market Crash Again in St George?