What's going on with the St George housing market? Well, it's been active, to say the least. My apologies for not staying on top of these statistics; I've been quite busy myself, and while a poor excuse, it's the truth. I do appreciate the opportunity my clients have allowed me over the years. While I do become overwhelmingly busy at times, I am grateful for the opportunity and I realize that without my clients, I would not have any success. Without further ado, let's take a look at my favorite two-year stat image. The graph below illustrates the market conditions for the past two years. Notice the yellow line—that is a straight line for "sold" homes. You'll see we did have a very small dip in January… but that is relatively common coming out of the holiday season.

St George Utah Real Estate Market report by Paula Smith

It's interesting to note that our market "sold homes" is back hovering over the yellow line, "pre-covid normal." The red line that tanked was the inventory. That began right as covid was introduced to society. The available inventory line has been trending upward since April 2021. I expect this trend to continue, much as I suspect the "sold" trend to continue. The result? Supply and demand. We will have more supply and likely a similar demand. This will impact home prices, and we will probably see a downward pricing trend pick up some steam. I don't think the downward pricing will be as prevalent as our redline "active listing" demonstration, but I believe it will trend downward. Assuming the demand will likely remain, this will maintain stability. 

St George Housing Market Conditions by Paula Smith

Will we see a market crash?

Maybe.

I don't expect it to be the sudden impact we felt in 2007, but the likelihood of sustaining the current conditions is improbable. Prices are very high, mainly as a result of the lack of inventory. But as we gain more homeowner inventory and we are hit with the inevitable flood of lots and spec homes the builders have been stockpiling like squirrels stash nuts, I think there will be a relatively noticeable reconciliation of prices. Buyers who have been priced out of the market will likely find this favorable.

St George Building report October 2021I believe the squirrels are the ones who will be most unhappy. Many builders did not learn from the last crash, and they have not prepared for what's likely to come. Often, the construction community is plagued with the inability to handle their books effectively. The result is often their own shock when they realize they aren't receiving the funds for the homes they have already spent their proceeds on. Delays and pricing adjustments from all aspects in the build process aren't making the process standard—so for the squirrels who don't adapt….get ready.

Builder inadequacy will likely add to the derailment of the housing market, and we may again see unfinished homes and the rise of foreclosure activity. Again, I don't expect it to be exactly as we witnessed 15 years ago, but I see the similarities. Having mentioned some likely (probable) uncertainty in the housing market, does this mean buyers should stay out?

No.

Real estate has always been a safer bet than most any investment. If you're planning on buying and holding long-term, historically, you'll be fine. Those with short-term goals may face some market turbulence. If you're taking less for the home you're selling, it's also likely you're paying less for the home you're buying. For most of us, it will wash. Some of us may feel the pinch.

Paula Smith RealtyPath St GeorgeI am Paula Smith, Associate Broker with RealtyPath of St George. I have been a licensed, full-time real estate agent in Southern Utah since 2006.  I have been selling residential real estate during all of the changes in the market, as well as witnessing our St George area grow to become one of the fastest-growing cities in America. I keep my finger on the pulse and not only pay attention to what is going on, but I've also accurately predicted future market conditions.  

Allow me to be of assistance and earn your business. If you’ve got a home in Southern Utah that you’re thinking of selling and you’d like a property market report, I can send that to you.

If you're ready to buy or sell, I'm prepared to make it happen.  435-773-3751

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